Track Record
Calls & Scoring
Every prediction documented before the fact, scored when it resolves.
Scoring methodology
From 2025 onwards, calls carry explicit weights: ★★ Important (2) — high-conviction structural calls; ★ Normal (1) — standard directional calls; — Passive (0) — calls that something would not happen, or barely significant outcomes. These are tracked but excluded from the weighted score. The weighted accuracy is calculated as: sum of weights of correct calls ÷ sum of weights of all resolved non-passive calls.
For 2023–2024, all calls carry equal weight (1 point for correct, 0 for missed). Simple accuracy applies.
From 2025 onwards, calls carry explicit weights: ★★ Important (2) — high-conviction structural calls; ★ Normal (1) — standard directional calls; — Passive (0) — calls that something would not happen, or barely significant outcomes. These are tracked but excluded from the weighted score. The weighted accuracy is calculated as: sum of weights of correct calls ÷ sum of weights of all resolved non-passive calls.
For 2023–2024, all calls carry equal weight (1 point for correct, 0 for missed). Simple accuracy applies.