Track Record
Calls & Scoring
Every prediction documented before the fact, scored when it resolves.
2026 · Weighted
—
No resolved calls yet · 10 open
2025 · Weighted
12/14
86% accuracy
2024
7/8
88% accuracy
2023
4/4
100% accuracy · 1 open
2022
7/8
88% accuracy
PM Takaichi's unfunded investment spree would not cause a bond market crisis —
PM Takaichi's unfunded investment spree would not cause a bond market crisis — the BoJ owns too much of the JGB market — but would instead trigger a full yen currency crisis. An MoF/BoJ FX intervention would spook global equity markets by forcing an unwind of the endemic yen carry trade, with serious collateral damage for PE funds invested in Japan.
⏱ within 12 months (from Jan 2026)
↗ Carry On? Japan's Election Could Unwind the Trade
⏳ Open
★★Important
Oil prices remain suppressed due to structural oversupply and weak global demand.
Oil prices remain suppressed due to structural oversupply and weak global demand. Russia requires $65–70/barrel to balance its budget but sells at ~$62/barrel — a slow fiscal bleed that constrains its war economy.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★Normal
Gold prices remain elevated above 2025 record highs throughout 2026, sustained by persistent geopoli…
Gold prices remain elevated above 2025 record highs throughout 2026, sustained by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying programs, and real-rate dynamics.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★Normal
The Ukraine war settles into a frozen state —
The Ukraine war settles into a frozen state — too costly to escalate to decisive victory, too politically risky to formally abandon for either side. No meaningful peace deal or substantial territorial change emerges in 2026.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★★Important
China does not launch a military invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
China does not launch a military invasion of Taiwan in 2026. Pressure without war remains Beijing's preferred posture — an invasion carries too great an economic cost and military risk given current PLA readiness assessments.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
—Passive
China makes measurable progress toward domestic EUV lithography capability within a 5–10 year horizo…
China makes measurable progress toward domestic EUV lithography capability within a 5–10 year horizon, gradually reducing the strategic leverage that Taiwan and ASML hold over Beijing's semiconductor ambitions.
⏱ 5–10 year horizon (progress milestone by end-2026)
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★Normal
The EU does not implode despite historic right-wing electoral gains across France, Netherlands, Germ…
The EU does not implode despite historic right-wing electoral gains across France, Netherlands, Germany, and Poland. Economic hardship in the automotive and chemical sectors continues, but the institutional framework holds.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
—Passive
Japan experiences increased friction with China over Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands, and historical grievances.
Japan experiences increased friction with China over Taiwan, the Senkaku Islands, and historical grievances. PM Takaichi's government fails to resolve Japan's structural demographic or monopoly market problems.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★Normal
Despite inflated valuations and weak fundamental justifications for many AI companies, the bubble do…
Despite inflated valuations and weak fundamental justifications for many AI companies, the bubble does not fully deflate in 2026. Momentum, capital inflows, and narrative power carry it further than fundamentals would suggest.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
—Passive
US labor market weakens materially in 2026 —
US labor market weakens materially in 2026 — rising credit delinquencies, unemployment creeping upward, 42M+ on food assistance. Private credit markets show first serious stress before public equity markets register cracks.
⏱ through 2026
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, pt. II
⏳ Open
★★Important
The EU would have zero seat at the Ukraine peace table, because it had provided only a fraction of U…
The EU would have zero seat at the Ukraine peace table, because it had provided only a fraction of US military and financial support while simultaneously buying Russian gas. Peace talks would happen without European participation — confirmed when the US and Russia met in Riyadh, with Europe explicitly excluded.
⏱ by mid-2025
Resolution: EU excluded from Riyadh talks; US-Russia bilateral format confirmed; EU side-lined.
↗ The Parallax Conjecture
✓ Correct
★★Important
France's worsening debt-to-GDP ratio, combined with political paralysis following snap elections, wo…
France's worsening debt-to-GDP ratio, combined with political paralysis following snap elections, would push the Fifth Republic toward a constitutional and financial credibility crisis. Bond spreads versus Germany would widen materially.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: France spreads hit 90bp over Germany; constitutional crisis averted but government paralysis continued.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★★Important
Right-wing populist parties would gain power or expand influence across Germany, Hungary, Austria, N…
Right-wing populist parties would gain power or expand influence across Germany, Hungary, Austria, Netherlands, and the UK as traditional centrist parties collapse amid economic anxiety, migration pressures, and loss of institutional trust.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: FPÖ won Austrian election; AfD came 2nd in Germany; populists gained in Poland, Netherlands.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★★Important
US equity markets would significantly outperform their European counterparts throughout 2025, driven…
US equity markets would significantly outperform their European counterparts throughout 2025, driven by the AI investment boom, stronger economic fundamentals, and corporate earnings resilience.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: S&P 500 up ~25% in 2025; European indices underperformed materially.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★Normal
The Gaza siege would persist throughout 2025 with catastrophic displacement and casualty figures rea…
The Gaza siege would persist throughout 2025 with catastrophic displacement and casualty figures reaching 90%+ of the population. No meaningful or durable ceasefire would materialize despite international pressure.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: Gaza siege continued; 90%+ displacement; no durable ceasefire despite multiple short pauses.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★Normal
Beijing would maintain an aggressive pressure campaign against Taiwan —
Beijing would maintain an aggressive pressure campaign against Taiwan — military exercises, economic coercion, and diplomatic isolation — without escalating to direct armed conflict.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: China conducted major exercises; ADIZ incursions; no kinetic action.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★★Important
The Assad regime's structural vulnerabilities —
The Assad regime's structural vulnerabilities — economic collapse, Russian forces depleted in Ukraine, exhausted military — would culminate in a complete regime collapse. Predicted before the fall became consensus.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: Assad regime fell December 8, 2024; called before the HTS offensive completed.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✓ Correct
★★Important
A negotiated ceasefire would largely be in place by end of 2025.
A negotiated ceasefire would largely be in place by end of 2025. This call did not materialise — talks had barely begun and peace remained a very long way off by year-end.
⏱ by end-2025
Resolution: WRONG: No ceasefire by end-2025; talks began in Riyadh but no formal settlement.
↗ 2026: Not-so-silly predictions, part I
✗ Missed
★★Important
French government bond spreads versus Germany would widen further in 2025 —
French government bond spreads versus Germany would widen further in 2025 — already at their widest since the GFC when this was written. Le Pen's political campaigns to topple the government, combined with chronic fiscal irresponsibility, would intensify the pressure. New elections would only add uncertainty.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: French OAT-Bund spread widened to widest since GFC; France lost AAA at S&P in 2024.
↗ 2025: Silly Predictions
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Trump's return to the White House would bring sweeping tariffs against China and potentially the EU,…
Trump's return to the White House would bring sweeping tariffs against China and potentially the EU, triggering retaliatory responses and a broader restructuring of global trade flows along political rather than economic lines.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: Trump's 2025 tariff package exceeded expectations; retaliatory measures from China, EU, Canada.
↗ 2025: Silly Predictions
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Germany —
Germany — theoretically capable of being Europe's growth engine — would choose the status quo and thus irrelevance, refusing to stimulate its economy or provide credible continental leadership amid a collapsing government coalition.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: Germany GDP contracted in 2024; no fiscal stimulus; AfD surged; CDU-led coalition inherited stagnation.
↗ 2025: Silly Predictions
✓ Correct
Unweighted
A negotiated settlement would land in Q2/Q3 2025 after another pointless summer offensive.
A negotiated settlement would land in Q2/Q3 2025 after another pointless summer offensive. Putin couldn't sustain the economic and military costs of fighting on multiple fronts. This call was wrong — despite Riyadh talks beginning, no formal ceasefire was in place by end of 2025.
⏱ by Q3 2025
Resolution: WRONG: No meaningful ceasefire by Q3 2025; Riyadh talks barely began by year-end.
↗ 2025: Silly Predictions
✗ Missed
Unweighted
Xi would not annex Taiwan in 2025.
Xi would not annex Taiwan in 2025. Despite massive domestic economic pressures — historic youth unemployment, demographic collapse, real estate crisis — the PLA was not sufficiently ready, and there was nothing to gain militarily at that stage. The pressure campaign would continue but stop short of invasion.
⏱ through 2025
Resolution: PLA conducted pressure exercises but no invasion; 2025 assessment: still not ready.
↗ 2025: Silly Predictions
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Made the Nvidia buy recommendation to clients when it first attracted renewed attention after the cr…
Made the Nvidia buy recommendation to clients when it first attracted renewed attention after the crypto mining boom subsided — and was laughed out of a meeting for it. The thesis: Nvidia's GPU architecture was uniquely positioned to power the coming AI revolution. By 2024, the call had been spectacularly validated, with Nvidia becoming one of the most valuable companies on earth.
⏱ ongoing / multi-year
Resolution: Nvidia became one of the most valuable companies on earth by 2024; call validated spectacularly.
↗ Fooled by Volatility?
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Despite Magnificent Seven dominance of headline returns, the safest fundamental bets of 2024 were he…
Despite Magnificent Seven dominance of headline returns, the safest fundamental bets of 2024 were healthcare and financials: averaging 9–10% price returns with minimal downside volatility. Proof that buy-and-hold fundamental investing still works even in years dominated by three-trillion-dollar gorillas.
⏱ by end-2024
Resolution: Healthcare and financials averaged 9–10% price returns in 2024 with minimal downside volatility.
↗ Fooled by Volatility?
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Every Belgian party's election program, as calculated by the Federal Planning Bureau, would widen th…
Every Belgian party's election program, as calculated by the Federal Planning Bureau, would widen the budget deficit by 4–8% by 2029 relative to the Maastricht norm. Like Liz Truss before them, Belgian politicians looked at the mini-budget disaster and treated it as a shining example rather than a warning. The country would become significantly poorer no matter who won.
⏱ by end-2024
Resolution: All major Belgian parties' 2024 programs widened deficit; country in fiscal crisis by 2026.
↗ Election Time: Sharks, Blood and Budgets
✓ Correct
Unweighted
China's population had already peaked and structural long-run decline was now locked in —
China's population had already peaked and structural long-run decline was now locked in — the country faced losing roughly half its population over the next 30–40 years. Unlike EU demographic problems that could theoretically be addressed with managed immigration, China's demographic trajectory was essentially irreversible.
⏱ 30–40 year horizon (structural)
Resolution: China reported population decline every year from 2022; demographic trajectory confirmed locked in.
↗ The Migration Period — Redux
✓ Correct
Unweighted
The Hamas attack and Israel's disproportionate response would completely derail the Saudi-Israel nor…
The Hamas attack and Israel's disproportionate response would completely derail the Saudi-Israel normalization process that had been the biggest strategic prize of recent Middle East diplomacy. The primary beneficiaries: Iran and Russia, who needed the deal to fail. The conflict would also entrench far-right Israeli governance and make any two-state resolution structurally impossible.
⏱ by end-2024
Resolution: Saudi-Israel normalization collapsed after October 7; Iran gained influence; Hamas retained control of Gaza.
↗ Welcome to the New Dark Ages
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Russia lacked the bureaucratic depth and economic capacity to reconstitute empire.
Russia lacked the bureaucratic depth and economic capacity to reconstitute empire. The invasion would not produce a decisive Russian victory, nor a Ukrainian one — it would grind into a costly stalemate where money and weapons from the West kept Ukraine afloat while Russia bled out its military capacity.
⏱ through 2024
Resolution: Stalemate held through 2024; Riyadh talks only began in late 2025.
↗ Welcome to the New Dark Ages
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Iran was approaching the status of a de facto tenth nuclear power.
Iran was approaching the status of a de facto tenth nuclear power. With nine nations already possessing nuclear weapons across five factions, Tehran's enrichment program was on a trajectory that would eventually put it in the same category — with enormous destabilising consequences for the Middle East.
⏱ 5–10 year horizon
↗ Welcome to the New Dark Ages
⏳ Open
Unweighted
The 2024 global election cycle —
The 2024 global election cycle — with votes in the US, EU, India, UK, and numerous other major democracies — would be the single most consequential electoral period in modern history. Voters choosing between reformers and the anti-establishment wave would set the direction of the world for a decade.
⏱ by end-2024
Resolution: 2024: US, EU Parliament, UK, India elections all shifted political landscape dramatically.
↗ Welcome to the New Dark Ages
✓ Correct
Unweighted
The De Croo coalition —
The De Croo coalition — a haphazard assembly of seven parties scraping by on a thin majority — would probably collapse at some point in 2023, forced by the EU to finally curb its runaway spending. A wrong call: the government limped on until the scheduled June 2024 elections, propped up more by the absence of a viable alternative than by any coherent governing purpose.
⏱ within 2023
Resolution: WRONG: De Croo coalition survived to June 2024 elections, propped up by absence of alternatives.
↗ 2022: The Harder They Fall
✗ Missed
Unweighted
Europe's energy crisis would force a reversal of the decades-long anti-nuclear consensus.
Europe's energy crisis would force a reversal of the decades-long anti-nuclear consensus. The brutal reality of needing affordable baseload energy — combined with restarting coal plants as the alternative — would force governments to begin public tenders for Small Modular Reactors and life-extensions for existing nuclear capacity.
⏱ 3–5 year horizon
Resolution: Multiple EU countries reversed nuclear phase-outs (Germany extended life of last plants, France restarted builds, Belgium extended Tihange).
↗ 2022: The Harder They Fall
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Given the mountains of debt requiring annual refinancing, it would be unreasonable for rates to clim…
Given the mountains of debt requiring annual refinancing, it would be unreasonable for rates to climb substantially from late-2022 levels by end of 2023. Both the Fed and ECB would slow and ultimately pause their hiking cycles well before rates reached truly damaging territory for government balance sheets.
⏱ by end-2023
Resolution: Fed paused at 5.25–5.50% (not 6%+); ECB at 4.5%. Neither went substantially beyond late-2022 levels.
↗ 2022: The Harder They Fall
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Truss and Kwarteng's £45 billion unfunded tax-cut mini-budget was described as madness —
Truss and Kwarteng's £45 billion unfunded tax-cut mini-budget was described as madness — inviting inflation to new record highs, risking irreparable economic damage, and ignoring every warning from the IMF, senior Tories, and the Bank of England. Sterling would fall further, the BoE would be forced into emergency intervention, and the political consequences would be terminal. Truss resigned 21 days later.
⏱ within weeks
Resolution: Truss resigned 21 days after the mini-budget; sterling fell, BoE intervened.
↗ Ice-Skating Uphill and Other Ideas
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Peak inflation was imminent in Q3 2022, with two or three additional rate hikes likely before the Fe…
Peak inflation was imminent in Q3 2022, with two or three additional rate hikes likely before the Fed and ECB cycle ended. Markets had priced in a brief but substantial recession. For cash holders, deploying into markets would beat losing to inflation. Both the peak inflation call and the rate cycle endpoint proved broadly correct.
⏱ by end-2023
Resolution: US inflation peaked Jun 2022; Fed terminal rate ~5.25% vs expectations of 6%+; cycle ended May 2023.
↗ Ice-Skating Uphill and Other Ideas
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Germany was paying Russia €200 million per day for gas and oil even while trying to support Ukraine —
Germany was paying Russia €200 million per day for gas and oil even while trying to support Ukraine — not by choice, but because Russian contracts were simply cheaper than any available alternative. This structural energy dependency was a strategic trap that would take years and enormous cost to escape, and would constrain Germany's foreign policy throughout the conflict.
⏱ multi-year (2022–2024)
Resolution: Germany paid Russia €200M/day through 2022; took years and massive cost to reduce dependency.
↗ Dogs Playing Poker
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Russia had failed every stated war goal, created a global food-supply shock, couldn't depose the pre…
Russia had failed every stated war goal, created a global food-supply shock, couldn't depose the president of a corrupt second-tier state, and was fighting the last war with its grandparents' equipment. Putin was desperately seeking a face-saving exit. Russia could not come out on top — its best outcome was a negotiated settlement before complete military and economic exhaustion.
⏱ within 18 months
Resolution: No decisive Russian victory after 3 years; best outcome was negotiated settlement from exhaustion.
↗ Dogs Playing Poker
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Written to clients at the very start of Russia's invasion: Russia's best possible outcome would be e…
Written to clients at the very start of Russia's invasion: Russia's best possible outcome would be ending up with 2–3 provinces in the South-East of Ukraine, not the conquest or regime change they sought. Confirmed three years later when Russia held Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and parts of Kherson — precisely the South-Eastern fringe — while negotiations began from a position of exhaustion on both sides.
⏱ within 12 months (from Feb 2022)
Resolution: Russia held only 4 south-eastern provinces; negotiations began from exhaustion on both sides — consistent with the call.
↗ The Parallax Conjecture (referencing 2022 client note)
✓ Correct
Unweighted
Scoring methodology
From 2025 onwards, calls carry explicit weights: ★★ Important (2) — high-conviction structural calls; ★ Normal (1) — standard directional calls; — Passive (0) — calls that something would not happen, or barely significant outcomes. These are tracked but excluded from the weighted score. The weighted accuracy is calculated as: sum of weights of correct calls ÷ sum of weights of all resolved non-passive calls.
For 2023–2024, all calls carry equal weight (1 point for correct, 0 for missed). Simple accuracy applies.
From 2025 onwards, calls carry explicit weights: ★★ Important (2) — high-conviction structural calls; ★ Normal (1) — standard directional calls; — Passive (0) — calls that something would not happen, or barely significant outcomes. These are tracked but excluded from the weighted score. The weighted accuracy is calculated as: sum of weights of correct calls ÷ sum of weights of all resolved non-passive calls.
For 2023–2024, all calls carry equal weight (1 point for correct, 0 for missed). Simple accuracy applies.